Abstract: [Objective] This study aims to make preliminary understanding of the relationship between relative growing degree days(GDD)and the relative plant height of different cotton varieties in order to provide theoretical reference for relative effective temperature monitoring of cotton plant height change by using the normalization method and clustering analysis through varieties tests.[Method]In this study,the experiment used 29 varieties which are widely planted in Xinjiang.The height of cotton plant was measured by fixed points and fixed plants for every 7 days starting from the three-leaf stage;and the meteorological data of the same year was obtained from Shihezi Meteorological Bureau.[Result]The result showed that the relative height of the cotton plant changed consistently with relative GDD in spite of different varieties.Here we established three categories of simulation model about plant height based on relative GDD: Y=a/(1+exp(b-cX))1d.Among these,the class I(from 3-leaf stage(relative plant height value was less than 0.14)to 11-leaf stage(relative plant height value was less than 0.7),the growth rate of plant height was slow): Y=0.997/(1+exp(26.08-33.62X))1/8.66(r=0.997,6);The class II(from 3-leaf stage(relative plant height value between 0.14-0.18)to 11-leaf stage(relative plant height value between 0.7 to 0.8),the growth rate of plant height was fast): Y=0.997/(1+exp(26.09-28.65X))1/8.41(r=0.996,7).The class III(from 3-leaf stage(relative plant height value was greater than 0.18)to 11-leaf stage(relative plant height was greater than 0.8),the growth rate of plant height was superbly fast): Y=1.02/(1+exp(8.55-12.68X))1/3.25(r=0.997,3).We tested the mode and the results showed that the value of RMSE was 1.699,8 cm,indicating that the error between simulated and observed values was relatively small.[Conclusion]Therefore,Richards function can effectively predict the changes of plant height in cotton.But the comprehensive factors such as light,temperature driven cotton plant height simulation model still need further study.

摘要： [目的]研究棉花品种间相对有效积温与相对株高的关系,通过相对有效积温监测,为棉花株高变化提供理论参考.[方法]采用品种试验,利用归一化和聚类分析法,设置29个新疆主栽品种,从三叶期开始,每隔7 d定点、定株测量棉花株高;当年气象数据从石河子气象局获取.[结果]不同品种间,棉花相对株高随相对有效积温的变化规律一致,建立了三大类基于相对有效积温的棉花相对株高模拟模型Y=a/(1+exp(b-cx))1d.其中,第Ⅰ类(棉花三叶期(相对株高值<0.14)至十一叶期(相对株高<0.7),株高生长速率较慢):Y=0.997/(1+exp(26.08-33.62X))1/8.66(r=0.997 6);第Ⅱ类(棉花三叶期(相对株高值在0.14～0.18)至十一叶期(相对株高在0.7～0.8),株高生长速率较快):Y=0.997/(1+exp(26.09-28.65X))1/8.41(r=0.996 7);第Ⅲ类(棉花三叶期(相对株高值>0.18)至十一叶期(相对株高>0.8),株高生长速率最快):Y=1.02/(1+exp(8.55-12.68X))1/3.25(r=0.997 3).对模型检验结果表明,RMSE=1.699 8 cm,模拟值与观测值误差小,能反映常规条件下棉花株高的生长发育状况.[结论]Richards函数可以有效地预测棉花相对株高变化.