]*>","")" /> Study on Forecast of Occurrence Degree and Emergence Period for Cotton Bollworm on Drip Irrigation Condition of North Xinjiang
Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences

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Study on Forecast of Occurrence Degree and Emergence Period for Cotton Bollworm on Drip Irrigation Condition of North Xinjiang

  • Received:2010-02-25 Revised:2010-02-25 Online:2010-02-25 Published:2010-02-25

滴灌条件下北疆棉铃虫发生程度和发生预期的研究

刘政;孙艳;贾文明;李保成   

  1. 新疆农垦科学院棉花所,新疆石河子,832000;新疆生产建设兵团农六师新湖农场,新疆玛纳斯,832000





摘要： [目的]探讨北疆棉区棉铃虫发生和气象条件的关系.[方法]通过对新湖垦区膜下滴灌棉田棉铃虫系统调查,结合当地气象资料研究,明确了积雪厚度与棉铃虫年发生程度的关系.[结果]建立了年发生程度与积雪厚度的数学模型Y=0.015 X~2-0.082 X+0.884;应用期距预测法对棉铃虫一代和二代高峰期进行预测,构建了两个数学模型Y_1=-0.839 X_1~2+35.742 X~1-341.685和Y_2=1.157 X_2~2-60.187 X_2+816.588.[结论]对以上三个数学模型进行回判和预测验证,准确性较高,可以作为该区棉铃虫预测预报模型使用.