Abstract: [Objective]The ecological bearing capacity is the quantitative evaluation index for sustainable development.[Method]In order to make the dynamic analysis of ecological bearing capacity in Kanas Scenic Spot, the authors obtained information on the land use and natural landscape change in 1992, 2000, 2005 in Kanas Scenic Spot based on "3S". The evaluation indices system of ecological bearing capacity in Kanas Scenic Spot was established using principal components analysis (PCA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). On this basis, 13 indices including the resources, environment and social-economy, which were separated from the resource bearing capacity, environment bearing capacity, ecological elasticity and ecological bearing pressure, were chosen as the sustainable development degrees indices. And the whole Kanas Scenic Spot(or different period) was divided into several sustainable development degrees with different sustainability of ecosystems according to the ecological load-bearing (negative direction and positive direction) index calculated. [Result]The results showed the ecological bearing index in Kanas Scenic Spot was decreased from 0.066 9 in 1992,to 0.048 5 in 2000 and 0.004 6 in 2005.The sustainable bearing state was decreased from sustainal bearing capacity in 1992 and 2000 to the poor one in 2005.[Conclusion]Which was occurred mainly due to the increasing of tourism development, population and economical activities. Thereby,all the obtained different data provided scientific basis for the regional sustainable development.

摘要： [目的]运用生态承载力定量分析喀纳斯景区的可持续发展程度.[方法]利用"3S"技术获取了喀纳斯景区1992、2000和2005年3个年份的自然景观和土地利用变化状况,利用主成分分析法、层次分析法构建景区生态承载力的评价指标体系,并利用状态空间法求算的可持续承载指数进行可持续发展程度区间划分,对景区可持续发展程度进行评价.从景区的资源承载、环境承载、生态弹性和生态承压等方面析出13个资源类、环境类、社会经济类指标作为评价指标体系.[结果]喀纳斯景区的生态承载指数从1992年的0.066 9,下降到2000年的0.048 5,2005年的0.004 6;而承载状态从1992、2000年的可持续承载下降到2005年的弱可持续承载.[结论]基于生态弹性状态、载荷状态与可持续承载状态建立的可持续发展程度区间的划分,可从整体上反映区域系统的生态承载力,为区域生态系统的可持续发展提供科学依据.