Abstract:
【Objective】 To analyze the spatial transmission mechanism and law among Xinjiang cotton price, national cotton price and international cotton price in the hope of providing an important reference basis for perfecting Xinjiang cotton price formation mechanism and cotton market risk management.
【Methods】 The Vector Error Correction (VEC) Model was used, the 2007-2019 Xinjiang cotton spot price, China’s 328 standard cotton price and the international cotton price Cotlook A Index monthly data were chosen to investigate the spatial transmission relationship of Xinjiang cotton prices.
【Results】 From a long-term perspective, there was an equilibrium relationship between international cotton prices and Xinjiang cotton prices as well as the national cotton price series. 1% change in international cotton prices causes a 1.103% change in Xinjiang cotton prices and a 1.065% change in domestic cotton prices. In the short term, international cotton price fluctuations had a significant transmission effect on Xinjiang cotton prices and national cotton prices. 1% change in the 1st order difference term of international cotton price in the previous period caused a 0.241% change in the 1st order difference term of Xinjiang cotton price and 0.3% change in the 1st order difference term of national cotton price. Granger causality test results showed that both Xinjiang cotton prices and national cotton prices were unidirectionally affected by international cotton prices, and there was no significant influence between Xinjiang cotton prices and national cotton prices.
【Conclusion】 The Xinjiang cotton spot market is closely related to the international cotton spot market. The changes in international cotton spot prices play a leading role in the changes in Xinjiang cotton spot prices. The Xinjiang cotton market passively accepts the output of price fluctuations in the relevant market, and the Xinjiang cotton market is the transfer price of the relevant market, leading to the high risk of cotton price volatility risk in Xinjiang.