新疆数字农业发展时空动态演变及区域差异分析

Spatio-temporal dynamic evolution and regional differences of digital agriculture development in Xinjiang

  • 摘要:
    目的 明确新疆十三地(州、市)数字农业发展水平的时空特征、区域差异及动态演进态势。
    方法 以2011~2020年新疆数字农业发展统计数据为研究样本,采用熵值法对新疆十三地(州、市)数字农业发展水平测度,通过Dagum基尼系数及其分解和核密度分析全疆及南北疆数字农业发展的区域差异及其动态演变态势。
    结果 (1)全疆及南北疆数字农业发展水平整体呈不断上升态势;其中,北疆的数字农业发展均值水平(0.220)大于南疆数字农业的发展均值水平(0.204);(2)新疆数字农业发展的整体区域差异出现逐渐缩小态势;其中,北疆呈倒“N”形发展趋势,南疆呈“W”形变化趋势,北疆组内差异大(均值为0.199),南疆组内差异较小(均值为0.183);区域内的数字农业发展贡献率最大(均值为50.792%),超变密度贡献率次之(均值为38.302%);(3)全疆整体及南北疆的数字农业发展水平核密度曲线中心向右移动,呈现出逐步上升的态势;出现“右拖尾”拓宽特征,存在数字农业发展较高的地(州、市),如乌鲁木齐市、昌吉回族自治州等与本区域内数字农业发展较低的地(州、市)如:博尔塔拉蒙古自治州、吐鲁番市等存在一定差异;伴有极化现象,其中,北疆由单峰到双峰,南疆波峰数量稳定,极化现象并不严重。
    结论 从时空特征来看,2011~2020年全疆及南北疆数字农业发展水平整体呈不断上升态势,呈现出北高南低的非均衡格局;从区域差异来看,整体差异贡献度主要来源于组内差异;从演进态势来看,2011~2020年全疆整体及南北疆的数字农业发展水平核密度曲线中心向右移动,呈现出逐步上升的态势,南北疆区域内存在一定差异,并伴有极化现象。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To clarify the spatiotemporal characteristics, regional differences and dynamic evolution of digital agriculture development in the 13 prefectures and cities of Xinjiang.
    Methods With the statistical data of digital agriculture development in Xinjiang from 2011 to 2020 as the research sample, the entropy method was used to measure digital agriculture development in 13 prefectures and cities of Xinjiang, and the regional differences and dynamic evolution of digital agriculture development in Xinjiang and southern and northern regions were analyzed by Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition and kernel density estimation.
    Results (1) Digital agriculture development in the whole Xinjiang and Southern and Northern Xinjiang regions was on the rise; Among them, the average development level of digital agriculture in Northern Xinjiang (0.220) is higher than that in Southern Xinjiang (0.204). (2) The overall regional differences in the development of digital agriculture in Xinjiang gradually narrowed; Among them, Northern Xinjiang showed an inverted "N" type development trend, while Southern Xinjiang showed a "W" type change trend, with large intra-group differences in Northern Xinjiang (mean 0.199) and small intra-group differences in Southern Xinjiang (mean 0.183). The contribution rate of digital agriculture development in the region was the largest (50.792% on average), followed by the contribution rate of transvariation density (38.302% on average). (3) The density curves of the overall digital agriculture development levels in the entire Xinjiang region and in the northern and southern Xinjiang regions have shifted to the right, showing a gradually upward trend. There is a "rightward tailing" feature, indicating that there are areas (prefectures, cities) with relatively high digital agriculture development, such as Urumqi City and Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, and there are also areas (prefectures, cities) within the region with relatively low digital agriculture development, such as Bortala Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture and Turpan City, showing certain differences; there is also a polarization phenomenon, among which, the northern Xinjiang region has changed from a single peak to a double peak, while the number of peaks in the southern Xinjiang region remains stable, and the polarization phenomenon is not severe.
    Conclusion From the perspective of spatial and temporal characteristics, digital agriculture development in the whole Xinjiang and Southern and Northern Xinjiang regions from 2011 to 2020 shows an overall rising trend, showing an unbalanced pattern of high in the north and low in the south. From the perspective of regional differences, the overall difference contribution mainly comes from intra-group differences. From the perspective of evolution, from 2011 to 2020, the center of the kernel density estimation curve of digital agriculture development in Xinjiang as a whole and in Northern and Southern Xinjiang moved to the right, showing a gradual upward trend, and there were certain differences in Southern and Northern Xinjiang, accompanied by polarization.

     

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