Objective Pine wilt disease (PWD) is caused by Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and mainly transmitted by insects of the genus Monochamus, which can cause devastating damage to pine forests. Taking Xinjiang as the research area, this study focused on the suitable distribution characteristics of pine wilt disease and its vector insects, carried out invasion risk prediction and comprehensive evaluation, so as to provide scientific reference for the monitoring, early warning, source prevention and control, and regional joint prevention and control of pine wilt disease in Xinjiang.

Methods This paper is based on the geographical distribution points and environmental factors of Monochamus sutor and Monochamus sartor urussovi in pine forests. this paper uses the MaxEnt and ArcGIS to predict the distribution of potentially suitable areas for PWD in Xinjiang and uses the knife-cut method to filter the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of potentially suitable areas for PWD. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of potential pine wood nematode habitat were screened using the knife-cut method. The risk of invasion and damage of PWD was analysed and evaluated using a comprehensive multi-indicator assessment method.

Results The AUC in the MaxEnt model was 0.998, indicating that the model predictions are highly reliable and can be used to predict the potential invasion risk of PWD. Bio1 mean annual temperature, Bio3 isothermality, Bio11 coldest quarterly mean temperature, Bio10 warmest quarterly mean temperature, Bio5 warmest monthly maximum temperature, Bio9 driest quarterly mean temperature, and Bio6 coldest monthly minimum temperature were the main environmental variables influencing the potential incidence of pine nematode disease. The model predicted that the high aptitude zones for the potential occurrence of PWD were mainly concentrated in the three mountain systems of Altai Mountains, Tianshan Mountains and Kunlun Mountains. Its high, medium and low suitability areas accounted for 18.35%、11.12%、8.57% of the total area of Xinjiang, respectively. The results of the risk assessment of the spread of the disease by applying a comprehensive multi-indicator assessment method show that PWD is an important and dangerous forest pest in Xinjiang, with a risk value of 2.64, making it a particularly dangerous forest pest.

Conclusion PWD has a wide range of potentially suitable distribution areas in Xinjiang, with the area of suitable areas accounting for 38.22% of the total area of Xinjiang, and the potential risk of continued expansion and large-scale outbreaks is high. The study can provide a theoretical basis for the relevant departments to rationally formulate preventive measures.