Distribution of Simulium maculatum in Irtysh River Drainage Basin and Potential Distribution Area in Xinjiang

【 Objective 】 This study aims at clarifying the division of different suitable areas and affecting factors of Simulium maculatum in Xinjiang and providing a scientific basis for the development of monitoring-forecast models and comprehensive prevention and control technology.【 Method 】The population dynamic of Simulium maculatum was investigated at 12 sites of seven counties in Irtysh river basin from June to July in 2003. The potential distribution area of Simulium maculatum in Xinjiang was predicted by MaxEnt model.【 Result 】Simulium maculatum was widespread in Irtysh river basin, the population increased from upstream to downstream along the river. The high-risk areas of Simulium maculatum in Xinjiang were mainly distributed in Altay, Changji, Tacheng and Bortala Region. The AUC values of training data sets and test data sets were 0.974,9 and 0.952,7, respectively. The results showed that prediction accuracy was higher.【 Conclusion 】The high suitable area of Simulium maculatum is mainly distributed in the northern Xinjiang, accounting for 4.33% of the total area. Annual maximum temperature, annual minimum temperature, annual mean temperature and annual amount of frost were the main environmental variables that affected the distribution of Simulium maculatum in Xinjiang.