Suitability analysis of Phenacoccus solenopsis in Xinjiang region based on MaxEnt model

Objective Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley, a major quarantine pest in China, has frequently invaded Xinjiang in recent years and posed a serious threat to the agricultural and forestry industry in Xinjiang, especially the cotton industry. By identifying its potential suitable areas in Xinjiang and its future diffusion trend, it can provide scientific guidance for monitoring, warning and interception of Phenacoccus solenopsis in Xinjiang.

Methods Based on the MaxEnt niche model, combined with the distribution points and the latest WorldClim 2.1 meteorological data, the distribution of potential suitable areas in Xinjiang was predicted and analyzed under different current and future climate backgrounds, and the accuracy of the model was evaluated, leading environmental variables and their optimal values were screened.

Results The Area under curve (AUC) values under different scenarios were 0.969, indicating that the predicted results of the model had a high degree of fitting with the actual distribution under current and future scenarios. At present, the total area of the suitable area of Xinjiang is 36.89×10⁴ km², accounting for 22.15% of the total area of Xinjiang. It is mainly distributed in Turpan City, Hami City, Tacheng Prefecture, northern Bayingoleng Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Kashgar Prefecture and Hotan Prefecture. In the future climate conditions, the potential suitable area of Phenacoccus solenopsis will spread significantly. The area of high suitability area increased by 1.63%−200% compared with the current scenario, and decreased by 15.69% in 2070s under ssps5-8.5 scenario. The area of middle suitable area increased by 4.22%−183% compared with the current, and the area of low suitable area increased by 120%−364% compared with the current.

Conclusion In the future climate conditions, there will be a relatively wide range of suitable areas in Xinjiang. The predicted suitable areas are consistent with the results of the invaded distribution points of Xinjiang. Moreover, its main host cotton is widely planted in Xinjiang, which coincides with the future diffusion area.