Objective Taking the crop-livestock production systems of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC) and Beidahuang Group as research objects, this study aimed to establish an estimation model for the farmland bearing capacity of livestock and poultry manure based on farmland potassium balance, so as to provide a theoretical basis for regional crop-livestock balance and green agricultural development.
Methods A model for evaluating the farmland carrying capacity of livestock and poultry manure was constructed according to the circulation rule of potassium nutrients in farmland. The farmland potassium budget ratios in the past decade were calculated. Threshold values were set by referring to the range of farmland potassium budget ratios reported in studies of developed countries, and the applicable application amount of livestock and poultry manure and corresponding farmland bearing capacity in the research regions were simulated and analyzed.
Results 1) From 2012 to 2021, the farmland potassium budget ratios of XPCC and Beidahuang Group fluctuated within the ranges of −103.90% to 80.28% and −65.25% to 68.82%, respectively. 2) The potassium budget ratio range of −17.56% to 20.70% was defined as the threshold. The total farmland bearing capacity of livestock and poultry manure of XPCC reached 294.586 million heads, among which the Sixth Division of XPCC possessed the largest breeding potential of 71.389 million heads. The total bearing capacity of Beidahuang Group was 1.02584 billion heads, and Jiansanjiang Sub-bureau had the maximum breeding potential of 260.575 million heads.
Conclusion The current livestock and poultry breeding scales of the two regions do not exceed their respective farmland bearing capacities. This research can offer theoretical references for regional crop-livestock balance management and the efficient utilization of potassium resources.
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